Cambodia-Thailand: Path to War?

Preparation for war, 01/12/2009

Abhisit’s government is testing Cambodia/Hun Sen’s patience. His lack of respect by ignoring every correspondence with Cambodia is nothing but ignition of the flame of anger from Hun Sen, who is patient not to strike against history-blinded ignorant Siam invader led by Abhisit and Kasit Piromya, and the Yellow shirts. Their bluntness as to invade neighboring countries while staying proud of their act as a civilized country leader is beyond bearable point. De facto, Thai government now does not have diplomatic relations with Cambodia. They went too far to ignorantly ask Cambodia to bow her head to the invaders if she wants to return the situation peacefully back to point before the invasion of black-uniformed Thai army on July 15, 2008. What a shameless gut!!!

On November 27, Kasit Piromya said that Thai government will not talk to Cambodia as long as Thaksin is still Cambodia’s adviser. Hun Sen presumably played Thaksin’s card to force Thailand into negotiating table, but now Abhisit’s government is playing the same card to force Cambodia out of the negotiating table as they know that Cambodia will not revoke Thaksin’s nomination.

Now the game is becoming WIN-LOSE game and there is no WIN-WIN game in sight as both sides show no sign of softening their stances except to push each other to the end point of the cliff.

For Hun Sen, end point of the cliff would mean physical war or the closure of bilateral trade. And the final objective is to oust Abhisit from the government as this government has no willing at all to have good relationship with Cambodia as long as Preah Vihear remains to be the core problem at stake.

For Abhisit, end point would mean loss of prime minister’s seat through snap election, closure of bilateral trade or physical war. And the final objective is to gain popularity in order to stay in power and make Thailand remain to be Big brother to Cambodia.

Hun Sen’s options: the closure of bilateral trade is going to be the next move if Thailand does not start to approach Cambodia on border issue. It will hurt Cambodia’s businessmen but Cambodia can consider shifting its alternative trade partners. But Thai business community will hurt more as they import to Cambodia more than 2 billion dollars. Moreover, Cambodian businessmen would not protest against their strong leader once the country is in crisis but for Abhisit, he does not have that luxury as had been proved in the cancellation of trip to Chiang Mai due to protest by business sphere.

If closure of trade became an option, the possibility of snap election in Thailand will become likely as more people will show their discontent against Abhisit’s government and this would give strength to the Red shirts.

Sooner or later, election in Thailand will take place, but for Abhisit, the urgent task now is how to buy more time in power so that he can put forth good performance in his career, and the other task is how to show to his people that Hun Sen is barbaric in order to stir nationalism in Thailand.

Thai may think that Thaksin is a better leader, but when it comes to quarrel with other country, nationalism will emerge in each person’s heart and then the support will go to someone who can fight against the enemy, no matter that leader is good or bad. The war on terrorism pushed the support for Bush in his second term is an example to this psychological trend of nationalism. (By the way, Bush is considered the worst president in his lifetime according to former President Jimmy Carter in his interview with the Nation)

For Cambodia, everyone see Abhisit and Kasit as devil already (except for Sam Rainsy, sic!). So the playground now is in Thai domestic political sphere. The fight between Abhisit and Hun Sen now is on how to convince Thai people that who really is the bad guy. Abhisit is trying to show that Hun Sen is ignorant and barbaric, and Thailand is a victim of Cambodia’s bully. With his soft face and high-class upbringing, his skill is getting better and better in putting the show to Thai public. Thus, giving him more time is dangerous for Cambodia.

On the other hand, Hun Sen is trying to show that Abhisit is incapable leader, who came to power to provoke tensions with neighbors putting the country’s economic and political interest at stake. But his character is harsh and this might provoke nationalism in Thailand, which eventually mobilize support for Abhisit.

So this is a difficult game, which, if not finely tune, the attack of the other side can become the mobilization of support for the other. And by the way, the support here means the domestic support in Thailand. For Cambodia, there is no question asked.

Now, the next and the worst scenario is the physical war. In this option Cambodia will lose more as she has poor economic base and weak military forces. To prepare for the worst scenario, Cambodia has to reduce public expenditure on other fields as to concentrate on military sector. Meanwhile the government intends to adopt taxes on vehicles and property as to increase government’s revenue. For a country that just came out of war and economic growth is just in its initial period, Cambodia finds it painful economically and morally in preparing her military power. “Morally” because Cambodia does not want to involve with war as she just got out of it and she knows clearly about the consequences of this abyss of hell.

Thailand is always at ease with her military and economic power.

A civilized country can invade small countries without remorse. It is a show of prestige and it seems that in this world, a civilized club means an imperial club of nation. Even though America knows that its ally, Thailand, is doing a bad thing, there is nothing America can do about it. But if Cambodia has a small human rights issue in her domestic affairs, America will bark all the way. This means that a small nation’s fault is always too big, but the mistake of civilized club will always be forgivable even if it means the elimination of another small state.

It looks as if Cambodia stands to lose more than Thailand if war occurs between the two nations. But as Hun Sen has said in remembrance of his early involvement in resistance forces that one cannot win someone who is not afraid to die. At the end point, for Cambodia, there is nothing more to lose. We have lost enough in 30 years of war with our own people, thus there is nothing more to lose from war against invading enemy. The world is such a cruel world. In international politics, we characterize the world as “anarchy”. Anarchy because we have the so-called “civilized club” who is very brave to spend their energy and economic power to promote righteous “liberty” and “freedom”, but they are coward to the bottom of their heart when it comes to questions against themselves or their own friend in the “civilized club” concerning the “integrity of humanity as a nation”.

It's not about Thaksin. It's about Preah Vihear, STUPID!

06/11/2009 What game is Thailand playing?

Cambodia is playing a game that we never want to play at all. What is the interest for Cambodia in hurting bilateral relations? But when the relations were already bad, there are needs for Cambodia to play such a nasty game to return to the status quo. Now it looks like Cambodia is hurting Thailand by using Thaksin Shinawatra. But why it takes such a long time to make Thai understand that what we interest most is not Thaksin nor Thai internal affairs, but the border issues and Preah Vihear. It is Thailand who is hurting Cambodia. Thailand has never ceased to meddle in Cambodia’s Preah Vihear issues and she does not show any intention to proceed with border talk, and this is what really makes Cambodia frustrating. But why the Nation and Bangkok Post overlook this point?

Now here is the point I don’t understand about Thailand. Who is the real actor by the way? The Democrat government or the army? To me, they seem to act like good police and bad police. Before the Democrat government said they did not want to strain bilateral ties, but the army acted in a different way by pushing their forces forward to the border, and Thailand gave us an impression that it was not the Democrat government who ordered the troop deployment. But now it is the reverse. The bad police role is being played by the Democrat government. They acted on international stage by diplomatically protest against Cambodia and UNESCO. Again, it is a matter of Cambodia’s Preah Vihear. But now the army is acting like a good police, when the Democrat government play the bad police role. Now you can see every articles quoted Anupong or other Thai military at the border as saying: “the bilateral ties is normal. Border situation is normal. We don’t want to see any conflict or armed friction. Everything needs to be settled peacefully….” blah, blah, blah.

But the question is WHEN will Thai return to the border talk, and WHO will be the trustable negotiator? For Cambodia, I don’t think we can sit at a table with A Thai smilingly speaking diplomatic paroles with us while having ANOTHER Thai behind our back sticking a gun at us.